Vote splitting crucial : NDP strength swung Liberal votes to Tories
The first returns suggest the rising support for the NDP has drawn enough votes to allow the Tories to capture 13 seats perviously [sic] held by Liberals and one held by the Bloc Québé cois [sic].
Although the Greens saw their popular vote again fall well below its 2008 level, returns suggest they were helping Tories win or lead in 14 seats where their plurality was smaller than the number of Green votes.
Let’s perform an experiment.
Let’s pretend that, instead of there being the Liberals and the New Democrats, we had one party representing the left wing in this country. Call them the Liberal Democrats. Now, granted, there will be some voters who might not want to vote for the Liberal Democrats. (Maybe they don’t like Jack Layton’s moustache.) So let’s assume that, oh, 5 per cent of the Liberal Democrat vote bleeds away to the Tories on the right. While we’re at it, let’s assume that 5 per cent also bleeds to the Greens on the left.
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That’s 31 ridings. Under this scenario, the Tories win 135 seats and the Liberal Democrats 168.
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